By Emilio Zola

Special

For the coast

What is an agreement with the IMF?In order not to fall into the abyss too fast, to grab a rock from which to climb to the highlands and thus reopen recovery chances in a globalized world where the uncollectible debtors are regurgated by the financial market, marginalized from the investments and private ofBusiness opportunities based on credit dynamics of a parallel reality that Argentina has been looking at Bruces against glass for too long.

The reality is that even those who abjuraded from understanding, muddy in slogans of political sovereignty stained with seventism, assume in their most intimate disquisitions that there was no other way.What alternative was after two years of bogged negotiations?Declare the debt contracted by the previous administration illegal?To ignore the institutional continuity of government acts in a country where constitutional democratic alternation governs?What courts would have been competent?Hague?

Too many questions, too many bifurcations in a course that would not have provided solutions but new controversies, with the risk of a exchange run fired by the chaos of a central bank without reservations, shortage of currencies, lack of trust and speculative eagerness of the concentrated groups.The dollar at 300 pesos in a few days, the capacity for consumption flattened to indigence levels and more than half of the national population condemned to exponential deterioration of their quality of life.All that would have happened if Argentina did not sign the agreement with its main creditor, the IMF.

The paradox that contains this capitulation is that one of its possible outcomes remains the same precipice of a broken economy, which we would have fallen into a jiffy of not having signed renegotiation.The agreement only stretches the deadlines so that the maturities that endangered the country: Where to cut the fiscal deficit?

President Alberto Fernández and the Minister of Economy evade the word adjustment.They use euphemisms such as correction, reduction, balance ... but the truth is that the demands of the IMF impose the continuity of an adjustment that has been practiced since the beginning of the Fernández management and before also, through factual devaluations that make inflationA silent allied of the government, because the fall of wages in real terms is the consequence of a magical pass of what we could define as "self -JUSHET", as it reduces the income of the population due to devaluation, a phenomenon that the different government leadershave always consented to always.

Guzmán denies that retirement or public employee templates will be affected, as well as there will be no scissors for education, health or safety budgets, but as the exchange rate continues to generate the inflationary gap of 50 byOne hundred annual, the national state deficit will be regulated due to the effects of the crisis itself.This is: in dollars, public spending is reduced year after year, in a descending spiral that generates the conditions so that the average income of Argentines descends to levels comparable to the salary scale of the Congo.

The Monetary Fund sympathetic to those singularities of Argentina, but although it has been lax in the definition of requirements, it will be relentless in monitoring the mechanisms that arbitrate Albertism to fulfill the forced savings that the State must implementChange of payment facilities granted by the multilateral entity.We must not forget that every three months, for the next 10 years, the Comptroller Missions will arrive in the country to review the fulfillment of everything established in a memorandum of understanding that was not yet written.

Of course, the constant intervention is not pleasant the technicians of the fund in matters that make the strategic command of national destinations, but those are from now on the rules of the game.Alberto and Guzmán, to name the two heads that promoted the agreement with greater conviction, must respond to the expectations of the creditor but also to the social clamor of an Argentina decimated by poverty that, however, in a year, managed to reverse the falleconomic caused by pandemic.Today the growth in productive and industrial activities, mainly of export profile, is a reality that from the Casa Rosada exhibits as a sample of the good that supposedly comes in the last two years of the current management.

But the problem is other one.It does not go through the amount of currencies that the country can recover through collection in prosperous sectors of the economy, but by the distribution of these profits.At present, although there is a bullish trend, Argentine workers only participate in 40 percent of the internal gross product, more or less the floor from which a remembered economic plan of popular cutting conceived by the 1973 Peronist administration departed: the 1973by José Ber Gelbard in the spring camperist.

In those years, Polish Minister Ber Gelbard (enrolled in the Communist Party but with good relations in the United States) achieved a multisectoral agreement that brought together unions with businessmen.By the time Juan Domingo Perón returned to the country and won the elections with Frejuli, the so -called social pact was entering into force, which kept the claims of the work sectors at bay (the guilds accepted increases below their aspirations) and managed to anchorThe prices of about 300 products of the basic basket.Result: In two years inflation decreased from 79.6 percent to 30 percent, with constant growth of GDP motorized by exports to half the world.

But it was the year 1974 and the president's health deteriorated until his death, in July of that year.He assumed his widow, María Estela Martínez, and with her the considered black monk of the Peronist right, José López Rega.It was enough for the great foundation of the Social Pact of Cámpora, Perón and Gelbard, which was trust, vanished in a matter of days until a program that, according to its creator, pursued a principle of social equity based on the redistribution of the redistribution of the wealth.

Today, in the middle of that illusion defeated by the fratricidal internal of a Peronism that came to consent murders such as that of the cegetist leader José Ignacio Rucci, another government of the same sign is discussed in an intraorganic dispute in which the rationality of the rationality ofThe moderates.Once again there is talk of conjuring the fiscal deficit with growth, although without specifying the domestic recipe to deserve the periodic assent of the money owners.

Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, from her silence of the last days, puts a trick to launch a tax reform plan that transfers the greatest weight of the effort required by the IMF to the sectors most benefited by the change of commercial paradigms that occurred inPandemia context.On the other side of the ruling driving table, the president proposes an orthodox exit with the reconfiguration of energy rates, reduction of monetary and ultimate issuance of public spending.

In the coming weeks the imprint chosen by the Government of the Front of All will be seen.It may be taba or astragalus, but the indispensable ingredient called confidence will remain in lack.The question is whether in the time that remains, Alberto is enough to regenerate that link to link with the different social sectors.From the pact with the background, you can try once again depending on the path you choose and a maximum that Eduardo Galeano raised with his always inspiring syntax: "We are what we do to change who we are".