Todo hacía indicar que después de la fuerte recesión económica y la mejora de la situación sanitaria (las vacunas no han llegado a todo el mundo por igual ni mucho menos), los países desarrollados podrían disfrutar de una segunda mitad de 2021 relativamente normal. Aunque la situación es sin duda mucho mejor que hace un año, quizá la vuelta a la normalidad económica no sea tan 'normal' como se esperaba. La recuperación presente está viniendo acompañada de ciertas singularidades que pocos habían previsto. Cuellos de botella, atascos en los puertos, escasez de inputs, materias primas... Y lo peor puede estar por llegar.

The Covid crisis was a total break of the economy.A 'hibernation' from which the world has awakened almost overnight.However, the offer side (which is responsible for producing goods and services) and supply chains are still cold after those months of break.When a cold and rest muscle goes to action suddenly, the risk of suffering is very wide.Something like that, along with other factors, is what is causing a worldwide logistics collapse that could endanger Christmas.

Delays in merchandise shipments, maritime freight fired, shortage of containers, little ethical practices to achieve a hole in a merchandise ship...And if this was little, China (the world factory) begins to ration energy, preventing key industries from producing its maximum capacity.

"Este año, más que nunca, convendrá ser previsores y avanzar las compras de Navidad, ya que la situación de colapso excepcional que está sufriendo la logística marítima internacional puede poner en riesgo el aprovisionamiento de todo tipo de productos, especialmente en periodos de máximo consumo como los que se producirán a finales de año", advierte Oriol Montanyà, director del Departamento de Operaciones, Tecnología y Ciencia de la UPF Barcelona School of Management (UPF-BSM), en declaraciones a elEconomista.

Aún no ha llegado la temporada alta (Black Friday y Navidad) y las cadenas de suministro se encuentran bajo gran presión.Oxford Economics firm economists have created a synthetic indicator (using several parameters and variables) to evaluate their status and everything indicates that the pressure is on the rise: "Transport traffic jams are the greatest stress point, but the limitedCapacity, production surplus, low inventory levels, costs of considerably higher supplies (more acute for raw materials) and labor challenges make it more and more difficult for supply to keep up with demand ", these experts say.

"Demand has exceeded supply. Es decir, no hay suficientes barcos para atender a todas las peticiones de transporte, algo que está provocando interrupciones en varias cadenas de suministro, hasta el punto de encontrarnos con fábricas que se han visto obligadas a parar la actividad y a mandar a sus trabajadores a casa porque no tienen los componentes necesarios para mantener la producción.As a manager of the industrial sector regretted, 'the question is not that materials are missing, but that they do not arrive on time, "adds Montanyà.

Carlos Moreno-Figueroa, portavoz de la Confederación Española de Comercio, se muestra de acuerdo en una charla con elEconomista y más que un problema de suministro, se trata de una cuestión de tiempos, que afecta sobre todo a ciertos componentes: "Hay algunos sectores más sensibles como es el caso de los juguetes, sabemos que va a haber retrasos, lo que no quiere decir que no vayan a llegar, pero quizá se retrasen un mes o mes y medio.Obviously with a very concentrated demand in certain months, if businesses and consumers do not advance purchases, many toys will be late ".

Why this transport collapse now?

Although the stress points are many, transport takes the palm.It is not easy.For example, if maritime transport suffers because there are not enough containers, it is normal for shipping companies to increase the orders of these containers, which takes time in normal conditions.But today the demand for metals to make containers (steel and aluminum) is fired, factories do not supply and to top it up the Chinese foundations are seeing their capacity limited by the cuts in energy consumption.A perfect storm that could explode at the end of this year.

"Every year you have to renew containers, its useful life is about five years, given the strong impact of the Salinindad del Mar and other factors.Last year with the COVID, even half of those who had renewed and, therefore, the number of units available in the market have fallen, "explains the CEC spokesman.

There are many factors that have coincided over time, generating an unpredictable situation. "En este sentido, hay tres problemas que se suman en una tormenta perfecta: el colapso de puertos (donde se retienen contenedores más de la cuenta), la descompensación de flujos (provocando que haya contenedores donde no se necesitan y viceversa) y la demanda disparada hasta un 8% (que supera una oferta menguante)", destaca Montanyà.

This expert explains why this situation is taking place.The problem comes through several points. Por un lado existen algunos desequilibrios en los flujos de transporte marítimo que están colapsando estas instalaciones marítimas."Some ports have been surpassed by the situation and are becoming authentic bottlenecks, either because they have suffered coronavirus outbreaks, such as the great facilities of Ningbo-Zhousehan (China), or simply because they do not have sufficient capacity,as the port of Los Angeles (USA), where ships must wait between two and three weeks to download ".

To try to reduce risks for the end of the year, logistics companies have made great efforts, improving processes, relying on digitalization and using predictive analytics.In addition, to try to ensure Black Friday and Christmas have advanced a good part of the operations (between five and eight weeks compared to previous years) to be prepared for these campaigns.This forecast to ensure the supply is pressing today the different transport chains, but in turn reduces the risk of shortage for November and December.

Francisco Aranda, president of a logistics, rules out the possibility of shortage at Christmas, but acknowledges that delays can occur in the arrival of certain products."Container manufacturers are not able to meet the great demand for this moment, while the health protocols slow down the operation of Asian ports... de modo que la relación entre oferta y demanda está absolutamente descontrolada.It is true that supply chains are being replicated to face these changes, but also that the tension is maximum, I do not know what else can happen, this is a perfect storm ".

Everything rises in price

This decouple can have its most visible implications in the collapse indicated, the delays in the orders...But it can also be temporarily touched by the vigor of economic recovery.Of little it is worth having a lot of demand if there is no offer to satisfy it.The result of this is a price increase that is already being produced and that can be aggravated in the coming months.

"Antes, traer un contenedor desde China a España podía costar 1.500 euros, ahora el precio se ha multiplicado por siete y hasta por diez en algunos casos.This is making all the products that come from outside and is also generating delays in the arrival of orders, "says Moreno-Figueroa.Maritime freight are fired.Sources from a Catalan textile company reveal to this newspaper that they have lost important orders of customers because the merchandise (interwoven for shirts) was stuck in China despite having a paid container and with a contract in a ship."It's like an auction, a company came from another sector that paid more for the container and our burden remained in the Chinese port even though we had a contract.Our cargo arrived weeks later, "says the source.

From the purchasing department of one of the most important supermarket chains in Madrid they explain that before or after they will have to raise prices because their suppliers are increasing costs everywhere: cardboard, plastics, transportation...Given this context, Moreno-Figueroa believes that "what is clear and what we are seeing is that a general price increase will occur.Costs at origin are increasing due to raw materials and this is already assuming a generalized price increase that will continue to affect all products...In the case of appliances we are advising that purchases are ahead, above all, because prices are going to rise and the highest costs will continue to move, although we do not foresee supply problems in this particular sector ".

Everything indicates that inflation will continue to rise in the coming months.The CPI has already reached 4% in Spain in September (3.4% in the euro zone) and that has not yet moved all this increase in costs at the price of final goods and services that consumers pay."If nothing is done to solve it, it is expected that in the coming months the situation will continue to get worse, since the demand will continue to increase due to the effect of Christmas and, consequently, the supplies chains will continue to stress," reveals the expert of the expertThe UPF-BSM.

Aranda, president of Use, insists that everything possible is being done to improve the situation. "Los operadores logísticos están haciendo frente a este terrible colapso, pero esto no es un problema de corto plazo, la capacidad de fabricar contenedores y palets no se incrementa de hoy para mañana.The solution is to reduce this ultra-dependence that we have of Asia.We have to relocate industries in Spain and in Europe, also manufacturing in Asia is no longer so profitable, now it is a unique opportunity to bring production back and that is closer to the final consumer ".

Sin embargo, en el corto plazo el colapso logístico podría continuar, sobre todo a nivel marítimo, donde las estampas de barcos portacontenedores y buques se agolpan haciendo cola en la entrada de los puertos de EEUU y China."Companies are working hard to look for solutions to current collapse, such as moving maritime loads to land or air transport, but it is still likely that at Christmas the availability of products and rises prices," Montanyà culminates.